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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 61.0% | +7.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |