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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Games Haven BBK PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 7 19.4% 28 67.9% 55.7% 58.1% 54.6% 1411 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 4 11.1% 18 72.2% 54.2% 57.6% 52.9% 1401 ↑ top
3 Wind Arcane 1 2.8% 8 75.0% 79.1% 57.5% 63.5% 1291
4 Water Aetherwing 1 2.8% 6 66.7% 59.0% 54.7% 52.7% 1409 ↑ top
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 5.6% 13 65.4% 49.5% 54.2% 50.3% 1332
6 Fire Aetherwing 2 5.6% 10 40.0% 53.2% 49.4% 53.1% 1166 ↓ low
7 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 5.6% 9 44.4% 41.6% 47.4% 45.4% 1236
8 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 2.8% 5 50.0% 57.7% 47.1% 50.6% 1214 ↓ low
9 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 5.6% 10 40.0% 54.8% 47.0% 52.7% 1204 ↓ low
10 Water Fractal 1 2.8% 5 40.0% 40.4% 44.6% 44.2% 1281
11 Water Astra Ranger 1 2.8% 5 20.0% 46.8% 44.6% 50.7% 1129 ↓ low
12 Fire Suzaku 1 2.8% 4 25.0% 47.3% 42.9% 48.2% 1148 ↓ low
13 Wind Wakeup Combo 3 8.3% 15 46.7% 45.2% 41.8% 44.2% 1289
14 Wind Allies 2 5.6% 9 16.7% 38.9% 41.2% 46.9% 1132 ↓ low
15 Water Genbu 1 2.8% 5 30.0% 51.0% 40.8% 48.9% 1118 ↓ low
16 Fire Neos 1 2.8% 1 0.0% 44.3% 40.0% 44.3% 1047 ↓ low
17 Fire Aggro 4 11.1% 17 29.4% 31.5% 39.5% 40.7% 1297