EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ACMETCG Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 100.0% | 73.4% | 66.7% | 65.6% | 1320 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 18.8% | 9 | 55.6% | 48.3% | 55.4% | 52.5% | 1238 | — |
| 3 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 52.9% | 54.2% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 66.0% | 51.4% | 53.5% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 6.2% | 2 | 50.0% | 43.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 54.6% | 49.1% | 51.3% | 1270 | — |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 18.8% | 10 | 50.0% | 42.6% | 48.0% | 46.0% | 1292 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 51.7% | 46.0% | 49.3% | 1104 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Chess | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.5% | 44.3% | 44.3% | 1277 | — |
| 10 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 35.7% | 42.9% | 45.2% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 6.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 40.5% | 36.0% | 44.0% | 1068 | ↓ low |