Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 0104(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +7.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +3.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |