Water FractalTier 2
at 0104(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-7-1
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.1%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1061
· median 1061
· range 807–1316
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1236
Q3 1416
1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
