Water AetherwingTier 1
at 0104(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-5-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1391
· median 1379
· range 1324–1469
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1236
Q3 1416
1576
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
