Water AlliesTier 2
at 0104(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1251
· median 1251
· range 1246–1256
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1236
Q3 1416
1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.6% | +8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
