← 0104(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽

Wind Astra ClericTier 2

at 0104(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽

decks
6 (18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 9-15-3
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5% avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
43.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1246 · median 1237 · range 1187–1319 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1236 Q3 1416 1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Umbra Guardian 12.5% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 36.9% -7.6
Fire Oblation 9.4% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 43.9% -4.5
Water Aetherwing 9.4% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 31.9% -13.5
Wind Crux Lorraine 9.4% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.6% +1.9
Water Allies 6.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 38.4% -8.6
Water Fractal 6.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 52.7% +2.6
Wind Seiryuu 6.2% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 6.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.6% -0.3
Fire Aetherwing 3.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.6% -16.7
Fire Crux Merlin 3.1% 0
Water Chess 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.8% +9.3
Water Crux Assassin 3.1% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 72.5% +16.8
Water Umbra Guardian 3.1% 0
Wind Arcane 3.1% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Calming Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Ravaging Tempest +1.00 1 0 0
Scout the Land -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony +1.00 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Astarte, Celestial Dawn +1.00 1 0 0
Orbiting Cosmos -1.00 0 1 0
Meteor Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Prima Materia +1.00 1 0 0
Nascent Barrier +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence -1.00 0 1 0
Horticounter -1.00 0 1 0
Lunar Seer -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/42197/archetypes/Wind Astra Cleric