Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at PTM Regionals
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1282
· range 1231–1340
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1164
Q3 1404
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.4% | +16.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Wind Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
