Water AetherwingTier 1
at PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Wind Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |