Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at PTM Regionals
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.9%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1408–1408
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1164
Q3 1404
1558
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
