EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 13.6% | 15 | 76.7% | 57.5% | 57.3% | 53.2% | 1462 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 66.4% | 55.7% | 57.6% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 43.8% | 51.7% | 49.1% | 1244 | — |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.0% | 51.4% | 52.1% | 1211 | — |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.8% | 51.2% | 51.7% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 2 | 9.1% | 12 | 58.3% | 55.4% | 50.7% | 50.7% | 1258 | — |
| 7 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.7% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1252 | — |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 9.1% | 9 | 61.1% | 57.2% | 49.9% | 50.3% | 1314 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 48.6% | 48.8% | 1225 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.6% | 48.6% | 47.0% | 1341 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Zander | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.0% | 47.5% | 48.6% | 1254 | — |
| 12 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 47.5% | 50.7% | 1213 | — |
| 13 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 47.5% | 48.6% | 1212 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.1% | 46.7% | 48.0% | 994 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Alice | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.1% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 1181 | — |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.2% | 45.7% | 48.7% | 1254 | — |
| 17 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 48.6% | 44.0% | 49.5% | 921 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.2% | 43.3% | 43.8% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.2% | 43.3% | 43.8% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 0.0% | 23.4% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 918 | ↓ low |