Fire OblationTier 2
at 漫果子大直店1/11 PTM店冠賽
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.5%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
39.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308
· median 1308
· range 1267–1348
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1264
Q3 1439
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.3% | -20.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
