Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 漫果子大直店1/11 PTM店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |