Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 漫果子大直店1/11 PTM店冠賽
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
7-1-1
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
82.6%
avg ELO +15.1 per match
expected value
58.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
61.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1407
· median 1407
· range 1407–1407
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1264
Q3 1439
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
