Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at 漫果子大直店1/11 PTM店冠賽
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-3-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1211–1211
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1264
Q3 1439
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
