← Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobby Lords PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Crux Lorraine
54.8%
↑ top
1st
Wind Astra Cleric
58.8%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Crux Merlin
53.7%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 85.7% | 59.3% | 58.8% | 53.6% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.6% | 54.8% | 54.2% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 11.1% | 11 | 72.7% | 59.5% | 53.7% | 50.8% | 1302 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.1% | 51.7% | 49.1% | 1280 | — |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.5% | 50.5% | 49.8% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 22.2% | 20 | 50.0% | 47.8% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1273 | — |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 49.8% | 52.3% | 1254 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 50.1% | 49.5% | 51.9% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 16.7% | 13 | 46.2% | 52.9% | 48.6% | 51.4% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.4% | 39.3% | 44.9% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 24.7% | 36.7% | 37.8% | 1131 | ↓ low |