EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AeXern Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.3% | 7 | 71.4% | 62.5% | 59.2% | 58.7% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 2 | 8.7% | 12 | 75.0% | 61.2% | 59.1% | 55.5% | 1288 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 70.0% | 56.5% | 55.4% | 52.1% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.3% | 54.3% | 53.2% | 1268 | — |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.5% | 53.3% | 51.3% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 13.0% | 10 | 55.0% | 47.5% | 53.1% | 51.4% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Nico | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 52.9% | 55.0% | 1249 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.7% | 51.4% | 53.2% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.6% | 47.5% | 49.9% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 13.0% | 13 | 42.3% | 46.8% | 46.3% | 47.3% | 1248 | — |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 2 | 8.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 44.7% | 45.8% | 49.1% | 1229 | — |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.6% | 44.4% | 46.4% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 33.3% | 40.7% | 43.2% | 45.3% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 28.5% | 40.0% | 40.5% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 33.1% | 37.8% | 41.7% | 1065 | ↓ low |