← GuildHall PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GuildHall PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 9.1% | 12 | 75.0% | 55.3% | 58.5% | 52.3% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 71.4% | 51.1% | 57.8% | 51.1% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 65.0% | 69.3% | 53.5% | 57.6% | 1283 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.8% | 51.7% | 49.5% | 1242 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.6% | 51.4% | 49.6% | 1285 | — |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 50.0% | 49.4% | 1218 | — |
| 7 | Wind Jin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1225 | — |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.5% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 1232 | — |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 13.6% | 15 | 50.0% | 56.8% | 49.1% | 51.9% | 1200 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.6% | 48.6% | 51.1% | 1264 | — |
| 11 | Water Astra Diana | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.0% | 46.7% | 47.7% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 25.0% | 40.7% | 46.0% | 44.4% | 1247 | — |
| 13 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.4% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1032 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.6% | 44.0% | 44.4% | 1203 | — |
| 15 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 43.8% | 44.4% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 21.4% | 35.0% | 42.2% | 42.7% | 1255 | — |
| 17 | Fire Neos | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.4% | 36.0% | 40.7% | 1047 | ↓ low |