← Happyland Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Happyland Store Championship
decks
3
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.8%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1295
· range 1265–1337
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
990
Q1 1253
Q3 1349
1519
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
