← Happyland Store Championship

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Happyland Store Championship

decks
5 (22.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19 9-8-2
overall winrate
52.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4% avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
51.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287 · median 1313 · range 1186–1356 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
990 Q1 1253 Q3 1349 1519
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 13.6% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 45.5% -2.6
Fire Crux Mage 13.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 53.2% +2.4
Water Fractal 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.3
Fire Aetherwing 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.4
Fire Aggro 4.5% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.5% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.5% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 45.5% -4.3
Horse and Taxes 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.5% +21.6
Water Aetherwing 4.5% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.4% -3.4
Wind Luxem Assassin 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.9% +3.0
Wind Razorgale 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.4% -21.7
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Lost Providence +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Mastermind Scheme -1.00 0 1 0
Orb of Sealing +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Tempest Downfall -1.00 0 1 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/43619/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike