← Happyland Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Happyland Store Championship
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.1%
avg ELO -6.2 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1013–1358
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
990
Q1 1253
Q3 1349
1519
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
