← Happyland Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Happyland Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.7%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1395
· median 1395
· range 1395–1395
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
990
Q1 1253
Q3 1349
1519
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
