← Happyland Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Happyland Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |