Fire PolkhawkTier 2
at ZARC PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.7%
avg ELO -5.9 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1060
· median 1060
· range 1060–1060
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1168
Q3 1330
1468
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Slimes | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Polkhawk decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
