Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at ZARC PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Slimes | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Curved Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |