Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at ZARC PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-4-4
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1291
· median 1330
· range 1173–1371
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1168
Q3 1330
1468
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
