EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ArtofCards PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Lorraine

58.2%

3.6% share · 5 matches

1st

Water Genbu

60.0%

3.6% share · 5 matches

14.3% share · 15 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Genbu	1	3.6%	5	100.0%	77.1%	60.0%	61.6%	1382	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	3.6%	5	80.0%	63.5%	58.2%	57.3%	1295	—
3	Wind Shadowstrike	4	14.3%	15	66.7%	51.9%	56.5%	52.5%	1328	—
4	Water Luxem Assassin	4	14.3%	12	75.0%	57.2%	55.6%	51.6%	1387	↑ top
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	3.6%	6	58.3%	53.2%	53.3%	52.4%	1238	—
6	Horse and Taxes	1	3.6%	4	75.0%	58.9%	53.3%	52.4%	1346	↑ top
7	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	3.6%	3	66.7%	57.9%	53.3%	53.7%	1232	↓ low
8	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	3.6%	6	66.7%	42.3%	52.9%	47.1%	1495	↑ top
9	Fire Firebloom Burn	2	7.1%	8	37.5%	39.4%	48.3%	48.0%	1181	↓ low
10	Fire Umbra Guardian	2	7.1%	6	41.7%	46.0%	48.2%	48.8%	1426	↑ top
11	Water Neos	1	3.6%	5	50.0%	59.7%	47.9%	51.1%	1208	↓ low
12	Water Overlord	1	3.6%	5	50.0%	59.7%	47.9%	51.1%	1208	↓ low
13	Wind Seiryuu	3	10.7%	10	20.0%	41.2%	43.1%	47.2%	1217	↓ low
14	Fire Aetherwing	3	10.7%	14	21.4%	45.1%	40.5%	46.9%	1104	↓ low
15	Chess	1	3.6%	2	0.0%	36.4%	40.0%	41.9%	1126	↓ low
16	Dawn of Ashes	1	3.6%	2	0.0%	36.4%	40.0%	41.9%	1126	↓ low
17	Fire Aggro	1	3.6%	2	0.0%	31.9%	40.0%	37.5%	1162	↓ low
18	Fire Suzaku	1	3.6%	2	0.0%	29.9%	40.0%	37.3%	1376	↑ top