Fire AggroTier 2
at Fun4 PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-5-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.9%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
46.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1241–1284
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1195
Q3 1337
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 16.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Chess | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
