Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Fun4 PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.8% | +20.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Chess | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |