Water FractalTier 2
at Fun4 PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1332
· median 1332
· range 1137–1528
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1195
Q3 1337
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Chess | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
