Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at GOAT PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1316
· range 1295–1338
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1216
Q3 1378
1492
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
