Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at GOAT PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1406
· median 1406
· range 1381–1431
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1216
Q3 1378
1492
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
