Fire ExiaTier 2
at GOAT PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -6.5 per match
expected value
42.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1113
· median 1113
· range 1113–1113
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1216
Q3 1378
1492
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
