Water FractalTier 1
at GOAT PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.6% | -10.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.3% | +9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |