Fire OblationTier 2
at J & J Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.3%
avg ELO -9.6 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1147–1159
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1198
Q3 1323
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse and Taxes | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
