Horse and TaxesTier 1
at J & J Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-2-3
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1250–1373
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1198
Q3 1323
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 18.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
