Water AetherwingTier 1
at J & J Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1406
· median 1406
· range 1214–1597
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1198
Q3 1323
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 18.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
