Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at J & J Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.2%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1262–1262
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1198
Q3 1323
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 18.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
