EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 91.7% | 59.7% | 61.2% | 54.4% | 1584 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 10.0% | 7 | 64.3% | 69.9% | 54.5% | 57.7% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Neos | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.0% | 53.3% | 54.1% | 1312 | — |
| 4 | Water Overlord | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.0% | 53.3% | 54.1% | 1312 | — |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.2% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 1286 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 50.7% | 48.9% | 1481 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 20.0% | 8 | 37.5% | 41.9% | 47.1% | 47.3% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.2% | 45.0% | 47.5% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 23.1% | 44.0% | 40.7% | 1477 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.4% | 43.3% | 43.8% | 1264 | ↓ low |