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Fire AggroTier 2
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.6% | -9.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |