← Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
decks
3
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-6-2
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.4%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1214
· range 1205–1464
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1186
Q3 1409
1702
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.1% | +17.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
