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Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.6% | -6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.0% | +6.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.9% | -17.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 69.8% | +12.7 |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Another Beginning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rainwoven Crysalis | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revealing Mesmer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |