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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.8% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Windwalker Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadeblood Coating | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coup de Grace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategic Planning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Miasma | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturnal Blossom | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bushwhack Bandit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Possessed Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temporal Spectrometer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |