← MainPhase Phantom Monarchs - Store Championships
Fire AggroTier 2
at MainPhase Phantom Monarchs - Store Championships
decks
5
(10.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
8-14-1
overall winrate
37.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1115
· median 1089
· range 1041–1275
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1172
Q3 1357
1630
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
80% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.4% | -7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Nico | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Fire Resonance Bauble, Peppered Chef. Losers more often ran: Creative Shock, Fiery Swing, Ghostsight Mare.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Peppered Chef
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Creative Shock
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Fiery Swing
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Ghostsight Mare
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Veteran Blazebearer
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Eye of Argus
Losing decks ran 8.0
copies on average,
winning decks 4.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Powercharged Shield
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 101 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 81 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Shieldmaiden | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flashfire Horse | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ghostsight Mare | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rocket Jump | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powercharged Shield | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bandage Wound | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Palace Guard | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blitz Charger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Bombastic Shot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pyroclastic Flow | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calamity Cannon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Infernal Manastreak | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rusted Warshield | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embershield Keeper | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Warcry | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scorching Strafe | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sunglory Sentinel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scorching Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Manaplate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alliance Gearshield | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Panzer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Furnace Drone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heatwave Generator | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |