← MainPhase Phantom Monarchs - Store Championships
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at MainPhase Phantom Monarchs - Store Championships
decks
2
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-5-2
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.3%
avg ELO -6.1 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1172
· median 1172
· range 1171–1173
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1172
Q3 1357
1630
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
