Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1396–1396
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1180
Q3 1418
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Slimes | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
