Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ameliorating Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |