EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Dragon nest ga store champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 14.3% | 20 | 87.5% | 68.5% | 60.5% | 56.5% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 2 | 7.1% | 12 | 54.2% | 53.3% | 53.5% | 53.7% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.3% | 52.0% | 52.6% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 59.1% | 59.0% | 50.1% | 52.1% | 1385 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 62.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | 1312 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 10.7% | 15 | 53.3% | 50.1% | 49.3% | 49.4% | 1368 | — |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 48.0% | 48.1% | 1390 | — |
| 8 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 45.0% | 58.1% | 47.7% | 51.7% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 50.0% | 46.4% | 47.2% | 45.4% | 1376 | — |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.5% | 47.0% | 50.0% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 45.0% | 36.0% | 45.5% | 42.9% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 42.2% | 45.4% | 47.1% | 1310 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Luxem Zander | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 25.0% | 35.4% | 45.4% | 45.9% | 1311 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 18.8% | 31.1% | 45.0% | 45.3% | 1313 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.2% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 1308 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.2% | 42.0% | 47.9% | 1301 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 23.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | 1209 | ↓ low |