EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 90.0% | 57.7% | 58.0% | 52.8% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 65.8% | 55.7% | 55.3% | 1316 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 61.5% | 55.0% | 54.6% | 1250 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.0% | 53.3% | 49.7% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.0% | 53.3% | 49.7% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.5% | 53.3% | 52.0% | 1270 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 58.8% | 51.7% | 52.9% | 1248 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 51.3% | 51.8% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 48.3% | 47.7% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.1% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 1288 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 14.3% | 11 | 36.4% | 52.2% | 47.2% | 50.7% | 1087 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 37.8% | 46.7% | 45.9% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 25.0% | 38.5% | 44.3% | 45.1% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.1% | 41.7% | 42.7% | 1067 | ↓ low |